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The Utter Bullshit Which Static-99/R SARATSO clearly are and the States Willingness to Accept!


OK, so let me just start this paper off by stating the obvious, which is I am in no way defending rapists, sexual predators, perverts, or claiming that their crimes are not horrific and the perverts who commit such crimes need to be punished and most definitely kept apart from normal society because they clearly have more than a few wires lose! That being said, I do have a real problem with any criminal justice system, form of punishment, or sentencing model that has any where in its operating procedures any claimed predictive capability.

I could go on about the utter break down of the word justice and the complete departure from the notion of “innocent until proven guilty” which one seemingly must adopt whole heartedly in order to fool oneself into believing there to be anything just or fair about the idea of pre-punishing anyone based upon what it is someone or worse some algorithm running computer believes they can or have predicted any alleged criminal will do in the future. However, the calculated lack of ethics required in order to completely turn our system of justice and its core value of “innocent until proven guilty” on its head completely by those who are presumptuous enough to believe their own intelligence to be so omnipotent as to make claims that they may with any degree of certainty predict the likelihood of any other human-being to commit a crime with a level of confidence which is at least on par with the required beyond a reasonable doubt disturbs me greatly.

I therefore feel an insatiable need to point out the many holes found in the theories of these practitioners of suto-science and highlight their work for the quackery it so clearly is. Therefore, I will be forgoing the obvious ethical concerns found in what the creators of Static-99/R SARATSO are trying to accomplish and restrict the entirety of this paper to the easily proven fact of how the creators of Static-99/R SARATSO have failed to deliver the morally bankrupt tool which they falsely claim to have so invented.

Upon reading the whitepaper titled “The Predictive Validity of Static-99R for Sexual Offenders in California: 2016 Update,” by Seung C. Lee, Carleton University, Alejandro Restrepo, Annie Satariano, California Department of Justice, R. Karl Hanson, Public Safety Canada, it becomes clear that the research paper is clearly meant to cause the many lawyers, judges, and law enforcement professionals who must read it to believe the authors thereof to be smart and know what they are talking about. This is done with a lot of fancy number charts and talk of statistical theories designed to ensure those same lawyers, Judges, law enforcement professionals readers do come to accept as true the concepts contained within the paper in order that it may enjoy such a large adoption by nothing less than the Californian Justice Department which in turn states on its website that: “The Static-99R is based on static (unchanging) risk factors which predict the potential for sexual re-offending. This risk assessment instrument is required by law to be used by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation to assess every eligible sex offender prior to release on parole; by Probation, to assess every eligible sex offender pre-sentencing and on a probation case load; and by the Department of State Hospitals, prior to release of an eligible sex offender from a DSH institution. In 2012 a study showed that inter-rater reliability on the instrument is strong in California (scorers are consistent in scoring the instrument).”

However, it’s clear that those same numbers, theories, and charts are designed to hide some very serious flaws, which I am sure no one at the Justice Department wants to point out (even if they cared enough to read it and discover those flaws) because they are too afraid that the authors of the paper and creators of Static-99R are smarter than they are. Luckily for myself I have no reputation to ruin, but even if I did, I would feel pretty safe in calling out the steaming pile of bullshit which the authors of the paper are trying to sell the Californian Department of Justice on. Then again… Now that I think about it, the Californian Department of Justice may not be exactly known as a bastion of critical thinking itself. However, in this particular case I feel these numbers, charts, and even the explanation behind them quite clearly prove beyond any reasonable doubt that Static-99R is a load of horse crap, buried in a report too boring or too intimidating to read and question by those who should be freaking reading the thing and questioning it.

However, since they have not, or are too mentally lazy to do so I will or have done it for them in this paper. So, let us begin with their numbers or sample sizes. From the beginning they base their entire analyses off a control number for recidivism rates which the authors admit they believe should be the recidivism rates for rapists. In other words, out of the 2100 rapists in the sample year the researchers literally just take a wild stab at a number they believe “should be” the correct amount or number of repeat rapists. They don’t bother to even do so much as arrive at their control number by say taking the number of repeat rapists for the past ten years prior to 2016, get a mean average, and then use that as a control number. No, they quite literally throughout a guesstimate created as much from fairy dust as it is from any scientific or mathematically relevant creation, and then proceed to base the entirety of their highly flawed study off of the number that for lack of anything else sounded about right to them. Then from that number which sounded about right to them, they go on to compare the numbers found in their fucked-up research to that number in order to prove the alleged accuracy of their fucked-up research. I know right…. Sounds pretty fucked up!

However, they don’t stop there. They then go on to state the entire study was only measuring white repeat rapists. Why exactly is never made clear, but they then assure their readers through a bunch of statistical jargon which must be the equivalent of academic fairy dust because that jargon got the paper and Static-99R to be not only accepted but mandatory for usage by those who decide what sorts of punishments rapists should get based upon the likelihood those people will re-rape again. However, the authors of the report go on to assure all those who read their paper that if they were to run the number including blacks, Latinos, Asians, and others that clearly the report would find that black’s re-rape more than whites, but Latinos and Asians (The race of the two authors unremarkably) would be significantly less than the tendency of whites to re-rape. Why exactly race was thought to be a factor in the rapiness of the perverts counted was never made quite clear, but one assumes that in order to get the numbers the quacks who drafted the report wanted or needed to get in order to prove their quackery had any amount of legitimacy to it or usefulness that breaking down which races like to rape the most by race somehow proved useful to their research.

However, none of the flaws I just mentioned are the crowning achievement of the level of hypocrisy and bullshit these snake oil salesmen disguised as legitimate researchers deploy in order to get the numbers, they clearly thought they should be getting. No, in their big fancy report about the likelihood of rapists to rerape and their genius level ability to predict reraping these statisticians turned con artist actually go on to admit that by reoffending as used in their research doesn’t actually even mean reraping! No, by reoffending what they mean is the likelihood of a rapist on parole or probation likelihood to catch another case for anything. That means any crime, and even included parole and probation violations. Which means at heart their entire research paper about their self-proclaimed ability to predict which rapists will and will not rerape in the future after serving their time for the first rape isn’t even about the ability to predict if the perverts counted would actually do pervy shit again! So, in other words the entire report could be more or less said to be more about the likelihood of ex-cons to re-offend, regardless of what their first beef was about.

However, through all this bullshit and even most of their own report whereby they keep stating how the numbers they predicted were higher than the actual numbers, these assholes still claim to have developed some fucking wonderous psychoanalytical tool which can predict with an acceptable level of error or accuracy just who will and who will not rerape again. What is even worse is that the Californian Justice Department has accepted this retarded quackery and the report used to allegedly prove its accuracy to such a level that it must be mandatorily utilized to determine the proper length of time any rapist is to get at his sentencing hearing! Now, that is truly some fucked up shit, and casts serious doubts on not just the sanity of the authors of the quackery report, but the California Justice Department, and the entire notion of mandatory sentencing as a concept as a whole!

See, this is what happens when other smart people think themselves qualified to play lawyer or judge. There always seems to be some social researcher, psychologist, data scientist, computer whiz, or other self-proclaimed “smart person” who says to themselves “the practice of law is not that hard, lawyers and judges aren’t so smart, I bet I can do it better than them!” Then they sell their incredibly smart sounding but really moronic idea to some politician desperate for votes and a way to prove they have a better plan for criminal justice reform than the other guy who then utilizes a quack theory and the quacks who can make the bullshit they are peddling smell or look like a bouquet of roses, and boom… Before you know it, you got people serving time for crimes they are predicted to do in the future, when everyone who is sane or in the first grade knows that the only person able to predict the future with any accuracy (At least the sort needed to justifiably take away a man’s freedom) is God himself! And the last time I checked, he wasn’t drafting and submitting research papers to the freaking California Justice Department. All though not surprisingly more often than not the California Justice Department likes to act as if they operate with a mandate from God, as far as the way it likes to interfere, dictate, and control the lives of the ever-increasing number of poor souls who unfortunately come under its authority on an annual basis! I guess all we can do is pray then I guess!

Here in ends the gospel according to Joel!


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